An Autopsy of the Illinois Midterm Primaries: Yeah, We're Talking Politics. Sorry.

Juliana Stratton celebrated her victory in the Illinois Senate primary. Credit: Al Jazeera

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the 2026 Illinois Primaries were mid.

As a relatively safe blue state, the candidates offered on Tuesday agreed on the big stuff; nearly all campaigns said they were committed to defeating president Trump's policy agenda, improving healthcare, improving education, and mostly committed to the broad Democratic platform; these are all good things in my opinion, and it's a relief that Republican influence is not creeping into Chicagoland, as some have feared. However, the involvement of pro-Israel lobbyists like the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (or AIPAC), as well as issues like the abolition of ICE struck a huge divide between candidates in all of these races.

In addition, 2026 saw a huge amount of retirements of incumbent candidates in Illinois. Most primary campaigns for incumbents are extremely easy, meanwhile open seats offer an opportunity for a change in alignment for that district's representative. 2026 was a record year for open seats; almost all of these vital races, being the senate race and the house race in Illinois' 2nd, 7th, 8th and 9th districts, all saw retirements leaving open seats.

Progressives and anti-AIPAC candidates drummed up a huge amount of noise and attention online following in the lead up to (last) Tuesday, especially in the primaries for Illinois' 9th district and the statewide Senate race, both of which drew national attention. Other races may not have had the spotlight, but they also saw bare-knuckle clashes between progressive challengers and more neoliberal candidates; many even saw progressives taking shots at one another as they vied to be the favorite in incredibly crowded fields.

Evanston mayor Daniel Biss declares victory in IL-09. Credit: The Record North Shore

As the results rolled in Tuesday night, the results were clear; neither neoliberals and their AIPAC financiers, nor the progressives seeking to completely change the status quo, could (reasonably) declare a decisive victory. Progressives won some important races, particularly the statewide Senate race, where lieutenant governor Juliana Stratton defeated IL-08 representative Raja Krishnamoorthi; while not the most progressive option in the race (Some analysts say that was Robin Kelly, others say Kevin Ryan), Stratton did have a more progressive policy agenda than Krishnamoorthi, since she called for the complete abolition of ICE, imposing restrictions on aid to Israel, as well as raising the minimum wage to over $20.

Illinois' 9th district saw a similar 'victory' for progressives; Evanston mayor Daniel Biss was able to claim victory over the neoliberal, AIPAC-backed Laura Fine and the progressive media strategist Kat Abughazaleh; the latter of which frequently criticized Biss for being a 'liberal zionjst' who took too soft a stance on the divisive issues. Similarly to the senate race, the more 'middle of the road' progressive won out in IL-09, defeating a more neoliberal and more progressive challenger alike.

So, if progressives won these two vital races, why were Tuesday's results 'disappointing'? Well, we have to look at Illinois' 2nd, 7th, and 8th districts to see why. We start with the 2nd district, representing the far South of the city, where AIPAC-aligned Donna Miller claimed a massive victory over progressive challenger Robert Peters and fellow liberal Jesse Jackson Jr. This race was especially disappointing since Miller's policy on the divisive issues appears further to the right than predecessor Robin Kelly. In the 8th district of the western suburbs, AIPAC-aligned Melissa Bean claimed a narrow victory against a wide field of multiple progressive and liberal challengers. Which brings us to the 7th district, which encompasses the Loop and much of the city's West Side. Danny Davis represented this district for more than 30 years before announcing his retirement for this term, leading to a mad dash to find his replacement. This race was a doozy.

The top 4 finishers for IL-07, not in any particular order; from left is Melissa Conyears-Ervin, Anthony Driver Jr, Kina Collins, and La Shawn Ford.

I found myself in the middle of this fracas, volunteering for progressive challenger Kina Collins, an Austin-based community organizer who ran for this seat 3 previous times, starting in 2020. To be frank, volunteering for this campaign is a big part of why I haven't written a blog since February; I have never really expended as much of my time volunteering for a 'cause' as I have this cycle, and not only have I built a network with other progressive organizers and orgs, but I've improved my own social skills as well; for a guy as autistic as me, that's a win regardless of how the election goes. I recommend nothing more than getting involved with local politics, even if getting into fights with other terminally online leftists for supporting a slightly different candidate (I had some... interesting interactions with Reed Showalter's staff) does make you want to claw your eyes out, it's worth it.

Getting back to the analysis; I held a lot of conviction in volunteering for Kina's campaign, and for (in my opinion) good reason. 2022 had been her most successful campaign, netting over 40% of the vote and nearly ousting Davis, but 2024 had shown promise as well, though the presence of the more liberal Chicago treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin had complicated matters. With the seat now open, it seemed like we would finally get a shot at a progressive win in 2026.

However, Conyears-Ervin returned to the race, this time with over 5 million dollars from AIPAC to try and dominate the race. La Shawn Ford, an Illinois state senator from the West Side, was also extremely popular, and while he was not backed by AIPAC, and was even attacked by cryptocurrency lobbyists for his stance against data centers, he was not much further left than Conyears-Ervin and aligned mostly with Davis, who endorsed him. Both of these candidates had significant controversies as well; Conyears-Ervin had scandals from her tenure as Treasurer brewing, such as using her staff/volunteers to plan personal religious events and badger the owners of local banks in order to acquire a mortgages, then retaliating against whistleblowers. Meanwhile, Ford had a misdemeanor tax fraud conviction from 2014 looming over his campaign, something Ervin's campaign took advantage with using attack ads.

With all of these factors plaguing the most popular moderate candidates, the race was a lock for progressives, right? Well, no; there was one, big problem. A whopping 13 candidates made the ballot for this race, and not a single one decided to drop out before the primary; 4 of them, including Kina Collins, were endorsed by some progressive group or alliance; these other candidates being union leader Anthony Driver Jr, organizer Anabel Mendoza, and attorney Reed Showalter. The rest of the fray varied heavily in position between moderates like Forest Park mayor Rory Hoskins, old-school democrats like Richard Boykin, and techno-populists like Felix Tello (who, coincidentally, performed the worst on Tuesday).

With there being 4 popular progressives on the ballot, all being backed by separate organizations, going up against 2 leading liberals, one might be able to see why progressives did not end up succeeding in IL-07; even though the total amount of votes cast for progressives was higher than victor La Shawn Ford's total, and nearly 30% of votes overall were cast for progressive candidates, the split between progressive candidates gave Ford the victory and left Driver Jr. and Collins battling for 3rd and 4th place, while Mendoza and Showalter placed even lower in the final vote.

While we can take some solace from the fact that AIPAC was not able to lobby Conyears-Ervin into the seat, and we as the people of this district will likely have more ability to hold Ford accountable for his votes compared to her, IL-07 represents a microcosm of a greater problem progressives are facing in the 2026 primary season and beyond; in the progressive sect of the Democratic party, who are the leaders? Who are the kingmakers? The neoliberal, AIPAC-aligned sect of this party has a clear process in deciding who to build coalitions around; as we saw with the victories of Donna Miller and Melissa Bean, they rally all of their endorsements around 1 candidate, usually going along with whoever ends up endorsed by their predecessor or by party leaders. They're lockstep, and will not hesitate to use attack ads like they did against Ford or Abughazaleh and are unified to justify or distract voters from the crimes against humanity committed by the country involved with their PAC.

Meanwhile, progressives will still stay in the race even after polls show them performing under 5% ; something that happened in not just the 7th district, but also the 8th and 9th district races, where AIPAC even advertised underperforming progressive candidates like Skokie Board of Ed. member Bushwara Amiwala to try to split the vote against Biss and Abughazaleh.

There is too much infighting in the progressive sect of the party right now to ensure consistent wins; in the 7th district's case, challengers sought to undermine Collins, even though she was the only progressive to get close to winning the seat in prior elections. Her challenge in 2022 attracted national attention, to the point where president Joe Biden intervened by endorsing Danny Davis; if there was anyone progressives needed to rally behind, it was her. While she was endorsed by some progressive orgs, many got behind Showalter or Mendoza without realizing how badly the vote would be split. These candidates even traded barbs with each other instead of unifying against the liberal candidates, and Collins was not the only progressive facing undermining; during the UIC College Democrats' debate for this race, Mendoza attacked Driver Jr over apparently accepting corporate money. The same happened to progressive tech entrepreneur Junaid Ahmed in the 8th district; he came within striking distance of Melissa Bean, but fell short thanks to yet another vote-splitting array of candidates and their infighting amongst each other. In the most extreme example yet, a low-polling progressive candidate for the 9th district named Bethany Johnson quite literally vomited in front of Abughazaleh's campaign office as a protest against cyberbullying.

IL-09 candidate Bethany Johnson protests in front of opponent Kat Abughazaleh's campaign office in response to Abughazaleh's fans harassing her online. Credit: bethanyfordistrictnine.com

So, why did this happen? Part of it is the enthusiasm for anti-AIPAC politics that has entered a gradual, but steady crescendo since 2023; especially as the average American's opinion of Israel has dipped into the negative, according to a recent Gallup poll. Enthusiasm for progressivism means a lot of progressive candidates vie for the top spot. Another part of it is the unique position Chicago holds as a target for the current administration's brutal and frequently illegally conducted ICE raids, which has intensified progressive enthusiasm (as well as providing a source of contention between candidates, who purity test one another on how they've contributed to the anti-ICE movement). The victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York's mayoral election in 2025, then, served not only to show that it was possible to win as a leftist, anti-AIPAC candidate, but also that it was possible to triumph over other progressives in order to win; Mamdani had progressive competitors like Brad Lander to contend with, but triumphed in the primaries in order to take on former governor Andrew Cuomo and republican taxi attack survivor Curtis Sliwa later that year. There's no doubt that Mamdani, then, inspired many of the lower-polling progressives to stay in the race and rest on their laurels instead of building coalitions.

Zohran Mamdani declares victory in New York last year. Credit: Boston Globe

There are two possible takeaways progressives can have from this. One is that progressives need a strategy to build coalitions in first-past-the-post elections and consolidate behind one candidate, instead of splitting between 3-4 candidates who are only nominally different in policy. However, there's another solution here that some candidates have proposed; something that will let progressives infight to their heart's content but still have a chance at beating more liberal candidates. That's ranked choice voting, something that was key to Mamdani's win in New York. With a new voting system, one where people can select the order in which they prefer candidates (and have their vote count for their 2nd choice if their 1st is eliminated in a runoff, then their 2nd, etc.), progressives have the ability to build coalitions embracing the differences between candidates, such as the coalition between Mamdani and his former foe Brad Lander. Ranked choice could have completely changed the result in the 7th and 9th districts; many of those who voted for low-polling progressives like Amiwala or Mike Simmons could've had their votes transferred to Abughazaleh after a first round of eliminations, and likewise, voters for Mendoza or Showalter could've had their votes transferred to Collins or Driver Jr if they chose to. Ranked choice is already allowed for city elections in Oak Park and Evanston, and an opportunity to bring it to Chicago might be coming soon, if organizers play their cards right.

Finally, everybody in Illinois, not just progressives, need to realize how dangerous it is to have AIPAC pour millions of dollars into these races. Democracy is more at stake in 2026 than ever and considering the sheer number of politicians who look to AIPAC for donations and funding, it's troubling that the rhetoric coming from AIPAC officials is more and more radical and violent against not just Palestinians, but anyone in American politics who has a shred of empathy for the Palestinian people.

The next elections to pay attention to are sooner than you think; the 2027 city elections in Chicago are fast approaching, and campaigning will start this summer at the earliest. I fear little more than the possibility that the same exact problem of vote splitting will spoil this election, but we'll have to wait some time until we know how many progressives will be challenging Brandon Johnson for the mayor's seat. However, if we pressure enough aldermen (yes, by calling and emailing them, which I know sucks) to get a referendum concerning ranked choice voting on the ballot, then maybe the ball of change can get rolling in Chicago and Illinois progressives will have a brighter future.